Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| O/U 7.5 | 57% |
| O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers | 48% |
| NRFI | 47% |
| O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| Extra Innings | 11% |
Market context
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers — current market-implied probability: 75%. In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for July 27 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $74K.
Methodology
This page reviews Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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