LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Karmine Corp face GIANTX in a League of Legends European Championship best-of-three match scheduled for 10 May 2026 at 09:00 ET. The Polymarket contract currently shows 0% implied probability for a Karmine Corp victory, reflecting either extreme confidence in GIANTX or minimal trading volume establishing price discovery. Settlement occurs at 19:00 UTC on match day, with conditional tokens on Polygon settling to USDC based on the official LEC result. The 0% pricing suggests either no meaningful position-taking has occurred or traders have assigned negligible odds to Karmine Corp's chances.

Historical LEC matches between established and emerging rosters show that extreme probability skew often reflects roster strength disparities rather than match uncertainty. Teams with significant personnel advantages or recent dominant performances regularly trade at 5–15% implied probability for their underdog opponents, even in best-of-three formats where variance exists. A 0% reading is uncommon outside situations involving known roster absences, administrative issues, or extremely lopsided historical records between these specific organisations.

Traders should monitor LEC official announcements regarding roster confirmations, any last-minute substitutions, or schedule changes through the LEC website and team social channels. Recent reports on both teams' spring performance and playoff positioning will clarify whether the current pricing reflects genuine competitive imbalance or insufficient market participation. The seven-day delay clause in settlement terms means matches rescheduled beyond 17 May would trigger 50-50 resolution, creating a distinct risk vector if scheduling disruptions occur.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/lec. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.