RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

RCD Mallorca will host Villarreal CF in a La Liga fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC that same day. The market currently prices a Mallorca victory at 30% implied probability, denominated in USDC on Polygon. This reflects the conditional token structure where YES holders profit if Mallorca wins outright; draws and Villarreal wins resolve to NO.

Historically, Mallorca's home record against mid-table La Liga sides has been mixed, though the club has shown resilience in recent seasons following their promotion stability. Villarreal, as a consistent European-competition participant, typically commands stronger odds in away fixtures. The 30% probability sits above Mallorca's baseline win-rate against comparable opponents but below what their home advantage alone would suggest, indicating the market weights Villarreal's superior squad depth and recent form substantially.

Key variables for traders include team news released in the week preceding the match—any injuries to Villarreal's attacking players or Mallorca's defensive core could shift the probability meaningfully. Fixture congestion matters; if either side plays a European midweek fixture beforehand, fatigue becomes a material factor. La Liga's official injury bulletins, typically released Friday before Sunday fixtures, will be the primary catalyst. The settlement window's tight closure at noon on match day means late-breaking team-sheet changes or weather disruptions could affect final pricing in the hours before kickoff.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.