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CSD Municipal vs. CSD Suchitepéquez - More Markets

Five-platform snapshot of "CSD Municipal vs. CSD Suchitepéquez - More Markets" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

O/U 0.5 96% CSD Municipal O/U 0.5 92% O/U 1.5 85% 2nd Half O/U 0.5 85% Volume: $79K Liquidity: $97K Closes: 25 Sept 2026
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CSD Municipal vs. CSD Suchitepéquez - More Markets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
96% 4% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
96% 4% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.596%
CSD Municipal O/U 0.592%
O/U 1.585%
2nd Half O/U 0.585%
1st Half O/U 0.578%
CSD Municipal 2nd Half O/U 0.576%
CSD Municipal O/U 1.572%
CSD Municipal 1st Half O/U 0.568%
O/U 2.564%
Both Teams to Score in Second Half59%
CSD Suchitepéquez O/U 0.556%
2nd Half O/U 1.555%
CSD Municipal 2nd Half O/U 2.555%
CSD Municipal (-1.5)53%
Both Teams to Score52%
CSD Suchitepéquez 2nd Half O/U 1.552%
2nd Half O/U 3.552%
CSD Suchitepéquez 1st Half O/U 1.551%
CSD Municipal 2nd Half O/U 3.551%
CSD Suchitepéquez (-4.5)50%
CSD Suchitepéquez (-5.5)50%
CSD Suchitepéquez O/U 5.550%
CSD Suchitepéquez 1st Half O/U 3.550%
2nd Half O/U 4.550%
CSD Suchitepéquez 2nd Half O/U 2.550%
CSD Suchitepéquez 2nd Half O/U 3.550%
CSD Suchitepéquez 1st Half O/U 2.549%
CSD Municipal O/U 2.545%
1st Half O/U 4.543%
O/U 3.542%
1st Half O/U 1.542%
CSD Municipal 2nd Half O/U 1.541%
CSD Municipal 1st Half O/U 3.538%
CSD Suchitepéquez 2nd Half O/U 0.536%
CSD Municipal 1st Half O/U 1.531%
CSD Suchitepéquez 1st Half O/U 0.531%
CSD Municipal (-2.5)30%
CSD Municipal (-4.5)30%
2nd Half O/U 2.528%
CSD Municipal O/U 3.523%
O/U 4.522%
Both Teams to Score in First Half21%
1st Half O/U 2.518%
CSD Suchitepéquez O/U 1.518%
CSD Municipal (-3.5)16%
O/U 5.511%
CSD Municipal O/U 4.510%
CSD Municipal 1st Half O/U 2.510%
CSD Municipal (-5.5)9%
1st Half O/U 3.57%
CSD Suchitepéquez O/U 2.54%
O/U 6.54%
CSD Municipal O/U 5.54%
CSD Suchitepéquez O/U 3.54%
CSD Suchitepéquez O/U 4.54%
CSD Suchitepéquez (-1.5)3%
O/U 7.53%
CSD Suchitepéquez (-2.5)1%
CSD Suchitepéquez (-3.5)1%
O/U 8.51%

Market context

Market consensus: 96% chance of csd municipal vs. csd suchitepéquez - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the Liga Nacional Guatemala game, scheduled for September 24 at 10:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We track CSD Municipal vs. CSD Suchitepéquez - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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