Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 85% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 Winner | 78% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 Winner | 77% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 63% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 21.5 | 42% |
| National Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 29% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: elina svitolina vs jessica bouzas maneiro stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Elina Svitolina and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This ma…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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