Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-5.5) vs Global Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: global esports vs ag.al international (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between Global Esports and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 5 at 7:00AM ET. …
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Global Esports vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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