UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The welterweight prelims clash between Eric Nolan and Farman Hasanov at UFC Baku tonight is the real-world event driving this prediction market, where the 0% YES price for Nolan implies near-certain defeat despite his professional record. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, reflecting the market’s stark confidence in Hasanov’s superiority over Nolan’s timing.

Historically, such extreme probabilities in UFC prelims often stem from one fighter’s reckless style creating exploitable errors, as seen when Hasanov’s aggression has previously overwhelmed opponents with minor mistakes. Betting data from DraftKings lists Hasanov at -185 against Nolan’s +154, with the under 2.5 rounds favoured at -188, suggesting a quick finish that aligns with the market’s zero-probability stance on Nolan winning.

Traders must monitor the official UFC result announcement tonight, as any delay beyond July 11, 2026, triggers a 50-50 resolution, while a No Contest or technical draw also resets the market. Recent coverage from Clutch Points highlights Hasanov’s -185 odds and the under 2.5 rounds pick, reinforcing the expectation of a decisive outcome that traders should watch via the UFC’s official feed for immediate settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.