UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Duško Todorovic side at **0% YES** on USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the market is effectively treating Valentin as the only live outcome unless that price moves before the UFC’s official result lands. The contract resolves on the UFC’s declared winner, with a draw, no contest, cancellation, or delay beyond the stated window rolling to 50-50 rather than either fighter.

That 0% print is best read against the stylistic split in the matchup. UFC stats and fight databases show Todorovic as the higher-volume striker, landing 4.73 significant strikes per minute to Valentin’s 1.30, while Valentin brings the stronger submission profile at 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes versus Todorovic’s 0.3.[2] MMA Index also shows Todorovic’s win mix leaning towards KO/TKO, while Valentin’s career finishes are dominated by submissions, which matters because a market this one-sided on a single fight can still be wrong if the grappling edge turns into an early finish.[1]

The main catalysts for holders are simple: official bout start time, any late commission or medical changes, and whether the UFC posts a clear result after the card. If the fight is reshuffled, stopped early for an unintended foul, or reaches a non-standard ruling, the market’s fallback rules become decisive rather than the pre-fight form lines.[2] With a settlement window running past the scheduled bout, traders should watch for an official UFC result rather than relying on live commentary or third-party scorecards.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight, Main Card) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.