Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Derry City FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 90% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 90% |
| Derry City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| Derry City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Derry City FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5) | 0% |
| Derry City FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Derry City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Derry City FC must overturn a one-goal deficit against PFK CSKA Sofia in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League first qualifying round tie, with the match kicking off at 1:30 PM ET today in Sofia. On Polymarket, the “More Markets” contract for this fixture trades at a 0% implied probability for YES, reflecting the market’s certainty that no additional betting avenues will open or resolve favourably beyond the standard outcome. The contract settles on-chain using USDC on Polygon, relying on conditional tokens that execute automatically once the settlement window closes at 17:30 UTC on 16 July 2026.
Historically, Europa League qualifying second legs following tight first-leg results rarely generate “more markets” beyond standard win/draw/over-under lines, especially when the aggregate score is already decisive. In the first leg on 9 July, CSKA Sofia won 3–2, a high-scoring affair where the over 3.5 goals market hit [1][3]. Comparable cases from past qualifying rounds show that once a team holds a clear aggregate lead, bookmakers and prediction platforms typically avoid expanding the market, keeping the probability of extra resolution near zero.
Traders should monitor the official UEFA match report and post-game press statements for any anomalies that might trigger additional markets, such as disciplinary actions or VAR controversies affecting the result. However, given the straightforward 3–2 first-leg outcome and CSKA Sofia’s current advantage, no such catalysts are anticipated. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the match odds and spread for today’s leg, with no indication of supplementary betting windows opening [5]. The on-chain settlement will proceed without deviation unless UEFA issues an unexpected ruling, which remains highly improbable.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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