Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes (-1.5) | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes (-2.5) | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Inter Club d'Escaldes 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The UEFA Champions League qualifier between Inter Club d’Escaldes and Lincoln Red Imps FC has already concluded, with Lincoln securing a 3–1 victory at Estadi Nacional d’Andorra on 14 July 2026[1][2]. Because the match outcome is settled, the prediction market “More Markets” now reflects post-event resolution logic rather than live uncertainty, explaining its 0% YES crowd-implied probability.
Historically, Polymarket contracts tied to “more markets” (such as total goals, both teams to score, or half-time/full-time combos) in completed UEFA qualifiers resolve within hours of the final whistle, conditional tokens locking in USDC payouts on Polygon once the official result is verified[1]. Comparable cases from past Champions League preliminaries show that markets with 0% probability post-match typically indicate the event condition failed—here, any “YES” outcome likely depended on a result that did not occur, such as an Inter win or a draw, which the 3–1 scoreline negates[2][4].
Traders should monitor the official UEFA match report and Polymarket’s resolution timestamp for formal confirmation, as conditional token redemption hinges on that data feed. No further announcements or schedule dependencies remain, given the game is over; the only catalyst is the platform’s administrative closure of the market, which typically occurs within 24 hours of final score validation[3]. With the result confirmed across multiple live-score sources, the market’s 0% probability aligns with the settled facts, leaving no open risk for new positions.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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