IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

IF Elfsborg faces IK Sirius at Borås Arena in an Allsvenskan fixture that concluded yesterday, with the match ending in a result that has already settled the underlying event. On Polymarket today, this specific contract trades at a 0% YES probability, reflecting the on-chain certainty that the settlement window has closed and the outcome is known. The market utilises USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens now lock in the final resolution rather than pricing future uncertainty.

Historically, similar Allsvenskan “more markets” contracts that settle post-match with a 0% price indicate the underlying condition failed definitively. In comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons, contracts pricing at zero after the final whistle consistently resolved NO, as the conditional token mechanism immediately reflects the settled result rather than speculative drift. This pattern confirms that the 0% figure is not a temporary dip but the final state of the token.

Traders should note that no further catalysts exist, as the match finished on 19 July 2026 at 16:30 local time, and all lineups and scores are now archived [5]. Pre-match odds favoured Sirius as the slight favourite at 1.96, while AI models projected a narrow edge for Elfsborg at 36.4% [1][4]. With the game complete and the settlement deadline passed, the contract’s resolution is deterministic, leaving no scope for new announcements or schedule dependencies to alter the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.