Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| O/U 1.5 | 88% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| Djurgardens IF (-1.5) | 60% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Djurgardens IF O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Djurgardens IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Djurgardens IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Djurgardens IF (-2.5) | 37% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Halmstads BK (-1.5) | 2% |
| Halmstads BK (-2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 97% chance of djurgardens if vs. halmstads bk - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the Allsvenskan game, scheduled for July 13 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Djurgardens IF vs. Halmstads BK - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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