Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CA Tigre O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CA Tigre 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Montevideo City Torque (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Tigre (-1.5) | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque (-2.5) | 0% |
| CA Tigre (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Montevideo City Torque 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Tigre 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Montevideo City Torque and CA Tigre are scheduled to face off in the Copa Sudamericana on 19 August at 8:30 PM ET. The Polymarket contract currently settles at 0% YES, reflecting zero liquidity or pricing activity for this particular conditional market. The settlement window closes on 20 August at 00:30 UTC, giving traders roughly 16 hours post-match to resolve the outcome. On-chain, positions are denominated in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens minting upon resolution.
The 0% pricing suggests either minimal trader interest in this specific Copa Sudamericana fixture or that the market has not yet attracted sufficient volume to establish a baseline. Comparable Copa Sudamericana matches on Polymarket have historically shown sporadic liquidity, particularly for fixtures involving Argentine or Uruguayan clubs outside the continental elite. The tournament's structure—knockout rounds with aggregate scoring across two legs—means single-match markets can carry asymmetric risk depending on the first-leg result and team form heading into the second encounter.
Traders should monitor official CONMEBOL fixture confirmations and any late team news regarding squad availability. Recent Copa Sudamericana matches have occasionally shifted scheduling due to domestic league commitments or security protocols. Torque's current league standing in the Uruguayan Primera División and Tigre's position in Argentina's Liga Profesional will inform pre-match expectations. Any announcement of venue changes or postponement would trigger immediate contract amendments, though the settlement window's proximity to match day limits adjustment scope.
Methodology
We track Montevideo City Torque vs. CA Tigre - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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