Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Club Olimpia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Vasco da Gama 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Club Olimpia (-1.5) | 0% |
| Club Olimpia (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Club Olimpia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Club Olimpia will face CR Vasco da Gama in the Copa Sudamericana on 20 August at 6:00 PM ET. The market currently prices additional betting options on this fixture at 0% YES, indicating either minimal liquidity for secondary markets or that traders expect the primary match outcome to settle before supplementary markets activate. On Polygon, conditional tokens tied to this game remain illiquid; the USDC depth suggests most capital is concentrated on core match-winner and over/under contracts rather than granular prop markets.
Historically, Copa Sudamericana fixtures generate secondary market activity only when primary outcomes are resolved or when match-day conditions create uncertainty—weather delays, injury announcements, or late team-sheet changes. Comparable Polymarket sports clusters show that "more markets" contracts typically activate post-kickoff or following official confirmation of match conditions. The 0% pricing reflects standard pre-match dormancy rather than trader conviction that no additional markets will materialise.
Traders should monitor official Copa Sudamericana fixture confirmations and any postponement notices from CONMEBOL in the 48 hours before kick-off. Vasco da Gama's recent domestic form and Olimpia's squad availability will influence whether conditional markets expand. The settlement window closing at 22:00 UTC on 20 August allows roughly 16 hours post-match for secondary market resolution, though liquidity typically concentrates on outcomes decided within 90 minutes of play.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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