Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro (-1.5) | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Mineiro (-2.5) | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
CA Mineiro and Red Bull Bragantino meet in the Copa Sudamericana on 19 August at 6:00 PM ET. The match represents a mid-stage knockout fixture in South America's secondary continental competition, where aggregate scoring and away-goals rules typically govern progression. On Polymarket, the conditional token pair for this fixture currently trades at 0% YES, indicating either minimal liquidity depth, a settlement specification that traders view as unlikely to resolve affirmatively, or both. The USDC-denominated contract sits on Polygon, where conditional tokens can be redeemed against the underlying outcome once the market settles post-match.
Historical Copa Sudamericana fixtures between Brazilian clubs show volatile pricing patterns, particularly when "more markets" contracts—which typically reference additional betting options beyond standard win/draw/loss outcomes—remain thinly traded. Comparable Polymarket sports contracts for South American club competitions have seen 0% probabilities shift sharply once fixture details crystallise or injury news surfaces. The current zero valuation may reflect genuine uncertainty about what specific sub-markets the contract encompasses, or traders may simply be absent from this particular conditional token pair.
Traders should monitor official Copa Sudamericana fixture confirmations and team news through mid-August. Red Bull Bragantino's domestic fixture schedule and any European-based player availability could affect squad depth. CA Mineiro's recent form in the Campeonato Mineiro and Série A will signal competitive readiness. Settlement hinges entirely on how the market creator defines "more markets"—whether this references goal-line betting, corner totals, or other derivative outcomes—making the contract specification itself a critical catalyst for liquidity and price discovery.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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