Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Mineiro (-1.5) | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5) | 0% |
| CA Mineiro (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Red Bull Bragantino and Clube Atlético Mineiro will meet in the Copa Sudamericana on 12 August at 6:00 PM ET. The market on Polymarket currently shows 0% implied probability for additional markets being offered on this fixture, priced in USDC on Polygon with conditional token mechanics. This suggests traders believe no supplementary betting markets will be created beyond what Polymarket has already listed for this match.
The Copa Sudamericana, South America's secondary club competition, typically attracts modest liquidity on prediction markets compared to the Libertadores or domestic league fixtures. Historical precedent shows that Polymarket expands market offerings for higher-profile matches—particularly knockout rounds or finals—but group-stage or early-round encounters often receive minimal market proliferation. Bragantino and Mineiro's August fixture falls into standard competition scheduling rather than a marquee event, which contextualises why the crowd has priced additional markets at effectively zero.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Polymarket's official announcements regarding Copa Sudamericana coverage depth and any late-stage fixture changes that might elevate media attention. The settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC on 12 August, giving a narrow window after the match concludes for new markets to be created and counted toward resolution. Fixture postponements or rescheduling would extend this timeline, though no disruptions have been reported as of early August.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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