Aberdeen FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Aberdeen and Heart of Midlothian are playing a Scottish Premiership match on 1 August, and Polymarket is pricing the contract at **0% YES** today, which on a Polymarket book means the market sees no live probability in the listed *More Markets* outcome rather than a judgement on the football itself. On Polymarket, funds sit in **USDC** and the bet is represented with **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**, so traders are really reacting to settlement mechanics, line items, and official match developments rather than to abstract opinion.

For context, this fixture has usually been competitive enough that a flat zero is only meaningful if the specific “more markets” condition has already been ruled out by the match state or by the exact market rule. Recent head-to-head records are mixed: FootyStats shows 17 Aberdeen wins, 15 Hearts wins and 10 draws across 42 meetings, while other aggregations put Hearts slightly ahead overall; that balance, plus repeated low-margin results, is the kind of history that usually keeps related sub-markets live until the final whistle[2][6][15]. The most recent meeting listed by ESPN finished Aberdeen 1-0 Hearts in November 2025, reinforcing that this pairing can move within a narrow band rather than breaking open early[7].

A trader should watch the official line-ups, any late injury or squad news, and whether the match starts and settles on schedule, because on-chain settlement depends on the exact event definition and timing window, which here closes at 2026-08-01T16:30:00Z. Live feeds from ESPN, SofaScore and Flashscore show the fixture as current and track the score state in real time, so any change in match status, postponement, or administrative correction is the main catalyst for a reprice or resolution[1][14][16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.