Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Botoşani 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| FC Botoşani 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Botoşani (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Botoşani (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Universitatea Cluj v FC Botoşani is priced at **0% YES** on Polymarket for the “More Markets” contract, which means the market is currently assigning no meaningful chance to whatever specific sub-market this token resolves on, even though the underlying SuperLiga fixture is a normal competitive match settled through USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens. For a Polymarket user, that kind of print usually reflects either an outcome the crowd sees as effectively impossible, or a contract definition so narrow that liquidity has dried up and the quoted price is no longer a clean proxy for match quality.
The football context does not obviously support a zero price on the game itself. Universitatea Cluj have been the stronger side in the head-to-head record, with multiple H2H sources showing a clear advantage in wins and goal difference, including 6 wins in 8 meetings and 7 wins in 12, while Botoşani have only a handful of victories in the longer sample.[5][10][18] Recent team form also points to a fairly balanced, low-scoring profile rather than a runaway mismatch: one source has Universitatea Cluj at 14-10-6 with 43 goals scored and 27 conceded, while Botoşani sit lower with 7-10-13 and 26 scored.[12]
The main trader watchpoints are lineup confirmation, late injury news, and whether this “More Markets” contract depends on a specific stat line, margin, or scoring condition rather than the final result. Because the settlement window ends on 2026-08-03T15:30:00Z, anything resolved by the league’s official match event, post-match data corrections, or a delayed start matters more than the pre-match narrative. The fixture is listed for 2 August at 11:30 AM ET, so the practical risk is not just who plays well, but whether the defined market condition is actually triggered by the official scoreline and stats feed used for resolution.[1][3][6]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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