Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chicago Fire FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chicago Fire FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| O/U 1.5 | 96% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| O/U 2.5 | 87% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 87% |
| Inter Miami CF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 86% |
| Chicago Fire FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| Both Teams to Score | 76% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| O/U 3.5 | 71% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Inter Miami CF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Inter Miami CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Chicago Fire FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Chicago Fire FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Chicago Fire FC O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Inter Miami CF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| O/U 5.5 | 29% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Chicago Fire FC (-1.5) | 25% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Chicago Fire FC (-2.5) | 15% |
| Inter Miami CF (-1.5) | 14% |
| Inter Miami CF (-2.5) | 12% |
Market context
The Inter Miami CF vs. Chicago Fire FC - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for July 22 at 7:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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