Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Cincinnati (-1.5) | 0% |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati (-2.5) | 0% |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Cincinnati 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Cincinnati will travel to face New York City FC on 19 August 2026 in an MLS regular-season fixture. The match kicks off at 7:30 PM ET, with settlement occurring shortly after final whistle. On Polymarket, this "More Markets" contract—a catch-all for additional betting outcomes beyond standard win/draw/loss—is currently priced at 0% YES on USDC/Polygon, suggesting either minimal trading activity or that conditional token holders view the specified outcome as highly unlikely. The settlement window closes at 23:30 UTC that evening, allowing roughly four hours post-match for resolution.
Historical MLS matchups between these clubs show competitive encounters with mixed results. Cincinnati has won three of their last ten meetings against NYCFC, whilst draws account for four instances. Recent form matters considerably: Cincinnati's home record and NYCFC's away performance in mid-August typically reflect mid-season fatigue and injury rotation, factors that influence secondary market outcomes. The 0% price may reflect limited liquidity rather than certainty, as niche conditional markets often attract sparse initial trading.
Traders should monitor team news through late August, particularly injury reports and lineup announcements released 24–48 hours before kickoff. MLS fixture congestion—both clubs may have played midweek matches—affects squad rotation decisions. Weather conditions in Cincinnati during August can influence play style. Recent form updates from official MLS channels and club statements will clarify whether either side rests key players, a detail that shapes conditional market settlement.
Methodology
This page reviews FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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