D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution

Platform comparison

Market context

D.C. United v New England Revolution is trading at about 4% YES, so Polymarket is pricing this as a near-longshot on the contract’s conditional tokens settled in USDC on Polygon, not as a broad view on the football result itself. With the settlement window ending at 23:30 UTC on 19 August, the market is effectively asking whether the match status and final scoreline clear the contract’s exact wording before the cutoff.

The historical frame points against a strong home premium. These clubs have a fairly even long-run meeting pattern, but New England have generally had the more robust recent record in the fixture, including a 1-0 win in April 2026. D.C. United’s own club preview says they came in unbeaten in six and holding the final Eastern Conference play-off spot, which is the sort of form that can keep a low-probability contract alive, but it still leaves the market heavily dependent on a specific match outcome rather than a general improvement in performance.

For a trader, the main catalysts are late team news, any change to the starting line-ups, and whether the match is delayed or altered, since the contract only resolves if the game finishes within the defined window. D.C. United listed kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET at Audi Field, while New England’s matchday guide also pointed to Apple TV coverage and clear weather, which reduces weather-driven uncertainty but not squad uncertainty. Any late change to the fixture, postponement, or abandonment would matter more here than marginal pre-match sentiment.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

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