Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
35% | 65% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
35% | 65% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | 35% |
| Yordan Alvarez | 31% |
| Junior Caminero | 23% |
| Pete Alonso | 12% |
| Kyle Schwarber | 9% |
| Andy Pages | 3% |
| Riley Greene | 2% |
| Liam Hicks | 2% |
| Brandon Lowe | 2% |
| Cal Raleigh | 1% |
| Aaron Judge | 1% |
| Rafael Devers | 1% |
| Juan Soto | 1% |
| Taylor Ward | 1% |
| James Wood | 1% |
| Sal Stewart | 1% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1% |
| Eugenio Suárez | 0% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 0% |
| Christian Yelich | 0% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0% |
| Bo Bichette | 0% |
| Nico Hoerner | 0% |
| Oneil Cruz | 0% |
| Jorge Soler | 0% |
| Player A | 0% |
| Player B | 0% |
| Player C | 0% |
| Player D | 0% |
| Player E | 0% |
| Player F | 0% |
| Player G | 0% |
| Player H | 0% |
| Player I | 0% |
| Player J | 0% |
| Player K | 0% |
| Player L | 0% |
| Player M | 0% |
| Player N | 0% |
| Player O | 0% |
| Player P | 0% |
| Player Q | 0% |
| Player R | 0% |
| Player S | 0% |
| Player T | 0% |
| Player U | 0% |
| Player V | 0% |
| Player W | 0% |
| Player X | 0% |
| Player Y | 0% |
| Player Z | 0% |
| Player AA | 0% |
| Player AB | 0% |
| Player AC | 0% |
| Player AD | 0% |
| Player AE | 0% |
| Player AF | 0% |
| Player AG | 0% |
| Player AH | 0% |
| Player AI | 0% |
| Player AJ | 0% |
| Player AK | 0% |
| Player AL | 0% |
| Player AM | 0% |
| Player AN | 0% |
| Player AO | 0% |
| Player AP | 0% |
| Player AQ | 0% |
| Player AR | 0% |
| Player AS | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mlb: rbis leader stands at 35% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the player who records the most runs batted in (RBIs) during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this marke…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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