Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros travel to Kansas City on 14 June for a regular-season matchup against the Royals, with first pitch at 2:10pm ET. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 0% YES, meaning the conditional token representing an Astros victory holds negligible value in USDC terms on Polygon. The settlement window extends to 21 June at 18:10 UTC, allowing for postponements or rescheduling within that seven-day buffer.

Historical context matters here: the Astros have won roughly 55% of matchups against Kansas City over the past five seasons, though the Royals have shown inconsistent but occasionally sharp performance in June fixtures. A 0% market price typically reflects either extreme confidence in the Royals or, more commonly, thin liquidity and minimal trading activity on this particular contract pair. Early-season June games often see lower volume on Polymarket compared to playoff or late-season contests, which can distort implied probabilities away from true expected values.

Traders should monitor roster updates and starting pitcher announcements, typically confirmed 24–48 hours before game time. Recent injury reports or bullpen availability shifts can materially affect win probability. Weather conditions at Kauffman Stadium—particularly wind direction and temperature—influence scoring patterns in June. Any official postponement triggers the settlement window extension, whilst cancellation without a make-up game would resolve the contract 50-50 across both conditional token positions, splitting any remaining liquidity equally between YES and NO holders.

Methodology

We track Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.