Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Chicago White Sox on 31 May at 2:10 PM ET in an AL Central divisional matchup. Polymarket currently prices the Tigers at 0% implied probability, reflecting either a technical pricing anomaly or extreme confidence in a White Sox victory among active traders on the Polygon-based contract. Settlement occurs 2026-06-07, allowing six days post-game for official MLB statistics to be confirmed and the conditional token distribution to resolve across USDC holdings.

Historical context matters here: the White Sox have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, winning 12 of their last 16 meetings against Detroit. However, 0% pricing on either side of a binary sports contract is exceptionally rare and typically signals either illiquidity, a data feed error, or a single large position anchoring the market. The Tigers' actual win probability against Chicago—based on preseason projections and recent form—sits closer to 35–45%, suggesting meaningful mispricing if the contract reflects genuine market sentiment rather than technical constraints on Polygon's order book depth.

Traders should monitor roster updates through 31 May, particularly injury reports affecting starting pitchers. The White Sox have announced their rotation but Detroit's pitching availability remains fluid. Weather conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field could shift run-scoring expectations materially. Any line movement on external sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel) in the 48 hours before first pitch often precedes Polymarket repricing, as arbitrage-focused traders synchronise positions across venues. The settlement window's six-day buffer accommodates potential postponements, though cancellation without a make-up game would trigger a 50-50 split.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.