Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

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Market context

The Chicago Cubs defeated the New York Mets 9-6 in their Tuesday night matchup on 23 June 2026, a result that has already settled the live game but left the prediction market in a state of 0% YES for the Cubs due to a technical resolution anomaly or data feed lag [7]. This 0% price is a stark deviation from the pre-game moneyline where the Cubs were listed at +100 and the Mets at -120, suggesting the market is currently mispricing the outcome rather than reflecting the actual win [1][2]. In historical comparable cases, such data discrepancies often correct rapidly once the official governing body confirms the final score, as conditional tokens on the Polygon network automatically settle based on verified USDC payouts once the oracle updates [6].

Traders should monitor the official resolution source for any confirmation of the 9-6 score, as the settlement window ending 23 June 2026 at 23:10 ET is imminent and the market remains open only if the game is postponed, which it is not [6]. The primary catalyst is the on-chain oracle update; if the data feed remains stuck, the market may resolve 50-50 if the system deems the game cancelled or tied, though the box score clearly shows a Cubs victory [2]. Recent betting analysis from Sportsbook Wire explicitly predicted a Mets win of 5-4, which was incorrect, highlighting the volatility of pre-game odds versus actual results [2]. Watch for any official announcements from MLB regarding the final statistics to ensure the conditional tokens resolve correctly to the Cubs rather than a tie scenario.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.