Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels face off in a single MLB game scheduled for 4:07 PM ET on 24 June, with the prediction market currently pricing the Orioles’ win at 0% YES. This near-zero valuation starkly contradicts pre-game win probabilities, where the Angels held a 53% chance of victory before the contest began[4]. Traditional betting lines also favoured the Angels, offering $226 on a $126 wager for an Angels win versus $203 for an Orioles win[1], suggesting the market’s collapse reflects either a realised outcome or a severe mispricing of the conditional token rather than a genuine 0% likelihood of an Orioles victory.

In comparable MLB prediction markets, such extreme probability drops typically follow either a confirmed game result or a technical error in the on-chain oracle feeding USDC settlements on Polygon. Traders should monitor official MLB announcements for any game postponements or cancellations, as a cancelled game without a make-up would resolve the market 50-50, not 0%[1]. Recent roster updates and pitching schedules are critical dependencies; for instance, if the Orioles’ starting pitcher was unexpectedly scratched before the game, that would explain the market’s shift, though no such news has been widely reported in the last 24 hours[5]. The settlement window ending 20:07:00Z on 1 July 2026 provides ample time for final statistics to be recognised by the primary resolution source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.