Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 59% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Game 2 Winner | 47% |
| Match Winner | 47% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 41% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 37% |
| Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) | 30% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 25% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 24% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 24% |
| Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5) | 23% |
Market context
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana — current market-implied probability: 59%. This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for August 13 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL G… on Polymarket Scam?
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