Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 77% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Game 1 Winner | 68% |
| Game 2 Winner | 68% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Game 3 Winner | 67% |
| Game 4 Winner | 62% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 60% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 42% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 39% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 31% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 31% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
Market context
The LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In prediction market currently prices this outcome at 77% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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