Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) | 66% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 63% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 62% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 47% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Game 4 Winner | 39% |
| Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) | 35% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 34% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 34% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 33% |
| Game 1 Winner | 33% |
| Game 2 Winner | 33% |
| Game 3 Winner | 33% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 24% |
| Match Winner | 19% |
Market context
Market consensus: 69% chance of lol: deep cross gaming vs team liquid (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Deep Cross Gaming and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 29 at 4:0…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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