Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
43% | 57% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
43% | 57% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 43% |
| CF América 2 - 1 Portland Timbers | 18% |
| CF América 1 - 1 Portland Timbers | 17% |
| CF América 1 - 2 Portland Timbers | 15% |
| CF América 2 - 2 Portland Timbers | 14% |
| CF América 3 - 1 Portland Timbers | 8% |
| CF América 3 - 2 Portland Timbers | 6% |
| CF América 1 - 3 Portland Timbers | 5% |
| CF América 2 - 3 Portland Timbers | 5% |
| CF América 3 - 3 Portland Timbers | 2% |
| CF América 0 - 1 Portland Timbers | 1% |
| CF América 0 - 0 Portland Timbers | 0% |
| CF América 1 - 0 Portland Timbers | 0% |
| CF América 0 - 2 Portland Timbers | 0% |
| CF América 2 - 0 Portland Timbers | 0% |
| CF América 0 - 3 Portland Timbers | 0% |
| CF América 3 - 0 Portland Timbers | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this exact-score contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is treating every listed scoreline as effectively out of reach and leaving the alternative *Any Other Score* path as the live settlement outcome unless sentiment changes before resolution. On Polymarket, that exposure sits in USDC on Polygon and is represented through conditional tokens, so the practical question for holders is whether the finished 90-minute score lands inside the enumerated set, not whether someone advances after extra time.[11]
The recent comparison set is not especially helpful for a single-score forecast, but it does give traders a useful range: the two clubs have produced relatively open meetings before, with recent head-to-heads including 1-1 and 3-1 scorelines, and América have avoided defeat in the last three meetings while also winning the previous two against Portland.[1][3][12][13] In comparable Leagues Cup and continental fixtures, América’s recent results have included 3-1, 3-0 and 5-2 wins, while Portland have also been involved in higher-event games such as 2-1 and 5-1 finishes, which is the sort of history that keeps exact-score markets fragile even when one side looks stronger on paper.[11]
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: final team sheets, any late injury or rotation news, and confirmation that the match starts and finishes within the stated window, because settlement is based only on regulation plus stoppage time and a postponement keeps the contract open until completion. The most recent fixture pages available ahead of kickoff also show both teams coming into the game with active schedules in Leagues Cup and domestic play, so any change in squad management or travel timing can matter more here than in a normal league match.[5][11]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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