Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Cremonese (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| US Cremonese O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| US Cremonese O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| US Cremonese 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| US Cremonese 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| UC Sampdoria (-1.5) | 0% |
| US Cremonese (-2.5) | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Cremonese O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Cremonese 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Cremonese 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| UC Sampdoria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Coppa Italia fixture between US Cremonese and UC Sampdoria is scheduled for 17 August at 2:45 PM ET. This secondary market on Polymarket is currently priced at 100% YES, meaning traders are settling conditional tokens at full value—a reflection of near-certainty that additional betting markets will be offered for this match. On-chain, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon, with resolution tied to whether supplementary markets materialise before the settlement window closes on 17 August at 18:45 UTC.
Historical precedent suggests Polymarket routinely expands market offerings for established football fixtures, particularly Coppa Italia matches involving Serie A clubs. Sampdoria's prominence in Italian football and Cremonese's recent Serie A history make this pairing a natural candidate for granular market proliferation. The 100% probability reflects trader confidence in Polymarket's standard operating procedure rather than speculation about the underlying match outcome.
The critical catalyst remains Polymarket's own operational decisions. Platform activity typically intensifies around major European football events; any announcement of expanded markets would confirm the YES resolution. Conversely, if Polymarket declines to add markets—an outcome traders currently assign negligible probability to—the contract would resolve NO. Traders should monitor Polymarket's official channels and the platform's market-creation activity in the week preceding the fixture. Fixture confirmation and team sheet releases closer to 17 August may influence whether additional derivative markets justify the platform's operational overhead.
Methodology
This page reviews US Cremonese vs. UC Sampdoria - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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