Türkiye vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Türkiye vs Paraguay to finish in an exact scoreline** at **8% YES**, with settlement on the match result only after **90 minutes plus stoppage time** because extra time and penalties are excluded. On Polymarket, the position is held through **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the final outcome mapped to a **conditional token** that resolves against the listed score options or “Any Other Score” if none match.

An 8% implied chance is low, but not out of line for an exact-score market in a World Cup group game, where the probability is spread across many possible results and the “any other score” bucket tends to dominate. Comparable market signals point to a fairly tight, low-to-mid scoring contest rather than a blowout: ESPN’s pre-match odds list Türkiye at around **+105**, Paraguay at **+285**, and the draw at **+245**, while the total is centred near **2.5 goals**. That combination usually leaves exact 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 0-1 type outcomes competing for the bulk of the mass rather than any single scoreline taking a large share.[2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the **confirmed line-ups**, late injury or suspension news, and any schedule or venue change before kick-off, because exact-score pricing is highly sensitive to team selection and pace expectations. FIFA lists the fixture for the **First Stage** at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, and live market data should be watched right up to the off because even small shifts in the total-goals line can move the distribution across the score grid.[7][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.