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Mexico vs. England - Player Props

Five-platform snapshot of "Mexico vs. England - Player Props" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Harry Kane: 1+ shots 93% Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots 90% Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots 85% Harry Kane: 2+ shots 83% Volume: $480K Liquidity: $2.0M Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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Mexico vs. England - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
93% 7% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
93% 7% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Harry Kane: 1+ shots93%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots90%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots85%
Harry Kane: 2+ shots83%
Harry Kane: 3+ shots71%
Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target71%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots62%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots62%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots53%
Armando González: 1+ shots on target50%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target50%
Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target50%
Raúl Rangel: 5+ saves49%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots48%
Armando González: 2+ shots on target48%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target48%
Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target48%
Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target48%
Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target48%
Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target48%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target48%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target48%
Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target47%
Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves47%
Raúl Rangel: 2+ saves47%
Raúl Rangel: 3+ saves47%
Raúl Rangel: 4+ saves47%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists41%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots40%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals38%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists38%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots36%
Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target36%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target36%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target35%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots34%
Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves34%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists34%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots33%
Armando González: 1+ shots32%
Armando González: 2+ shots32%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots32%
Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target32%
Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves32%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists32%
Ivan Toney: 1+ shots31%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots31%
Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots31%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target31%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists31%
Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists31%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots30%
Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves30%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists30%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists28%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals27%
Harry Kane: 5+ shots27%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists27%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals24%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists22%
Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists22%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots21%
Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots21%
Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots21%
Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists21%
Ivan Toney: 2+ shots20%
Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots20%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists20%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists20%
Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots19%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target16%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals15%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target15%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals14%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target14%
Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots13%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists12%
Armando González: 1+ goals11%
Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots11%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists11%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists11%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target11%
Armando González: 5+ shots10%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists10%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals9%
Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots8%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists8%
Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots7%
Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target7%
Ivan Toney: 1+ goals6%
Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals6%
Armando González: 4+ shots5%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals4%
Armando González: 3+ shots4%
Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots4%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists4%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals3%
Harry Kane: 2+ assists3%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists3%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists3%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals2%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals2%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals2%
Ivan Toney: 3+ shots2%
Ivan Toney: 5+ shots2%
Ollie Watkins: 5+ shots2%
Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists2%
Armando González: 3+ shots on target2%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target2%
Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target2%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target2%
Armando González: 2+ goals1%
Armando González: 3+ goals1%
Ivan Toney: 2+ goals1%
Ivan Toney: 3+ goals1%
Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals1%
Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals1%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals1%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals1%
Ivan Toney: 4+ shots1%
Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots1%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals0%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mexico vs. england - player props stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and England, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.

Methodology

We track Mexico vs. England - Player Props across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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