Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Germany Corners: O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Germany Corners: O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Paraguay Corners: O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 99% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 98% |
| Germany Corners: O/U 6.5 | 97% |
| Germany Corners: O/U 7.5 | 89% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 86% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 84% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 74% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 71% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| Paraguay Corners: O/U 2.5 | 64% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| Paraguay Corners: O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of germany vs. paraguay - total corners. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Germany vs. Paraguay - Total Corners across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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