England vs. Argentina - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

England and Argentina meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup semi-final on 15 July, with the market resolving strictly on the 90-minute scoreline, excluding extra time and penalties. Polymarket prices the specific “Exact Score” contract at an 11% implied probability for YES, reflecting the tightness of this on-chain USDC pool on Polygon where conditional tokens lock liquidity until the match settles.

Historically, World Cup encounters between these sides favour England, who hold three wins to one against Argentina across five meetings, with a single draw [1][9]. This 60% win rate for England in past World Cups suggests that exact-score contracts requiring a specific narrow outcome face steep odds, as the rivalry typically produces decisive results rather than the precise scorelines traders often target in similar high-stakes fixtures.

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and any late injury updates for key attackers like Jude Bellingham, who scored England’s quarter-final winner against Norway, and Julián Álvarez, who netted in Argentina’s 3-1 victory over Switzerland [3][5]. With the match scheduled for 3:00 PM ET on 15 July, any postponement keeps the contract open, but a cancellation with no replay would resolve the market to “Any Other Score” per the on-chain terms [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track England vs. Argentina - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.