Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| Argentina O/U 0.5 | 88% |
| Team to Advance | 86% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Argentina O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Egypt 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Argentina (-1.5) | 44% |
| Egypt O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score | 40% |
| Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Argentina O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 28% |
| O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Argentina (-2.5) | 22% |
| Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 22% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 20% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Egypt O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Argentina (-3.5) | 9% |
| Argentina (-4.5) | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Egypt O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Egypt 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 3% |
| Egypt (-1.5) | 2% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Egypt (-2.5) | 1% |
| Egypt (-3.5) | 1% |
| Argentina (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Egypt (-4.5) | 0% |
| Egypt (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 93% chance of argentina vs. egypt - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 7 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Argentina vs. Egypt - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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