United States vs. Senegal - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States men's national football team will face Senegal in a FIFA International Friendly on 31 May 2026 at 3:30 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 1% YES, implying traders assign minimal probability to additional markets materialising for this fixture. The settlement window closes at 7:30 PM ET the same day, giving a four-hour window post-kickoff for new conditional token pairs to launch on-chain. Given Polymarket's infrastructure for rapid market deployment and the substantial liquidity typically available for USMNT matches, the low probability reflects either low expected demand for supplementary betting options or uncertainty about whether the platform will allocate resources to secondary markets for a friendly rather than a competitive fixture.

Historical precedent suggests Polymarket deploys multiple markets for high-profile international matches, particularly those involving the USMNT or major European sides. However, friendlies occupy a lower tier than World Cup qualifiers or continental tournaments, and May 2026 falls outside the typical dense fixture calendar. Comparable friendly matches in prior years have generated limited secondary market activity, with platforms concentrating liquidity on primary outcomes rather than exotic derivatives.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Polymarket's official announcements regarding market expansion plans for late May 2026 fixtures. The timing of the settlement window—closing just hours after the match concludes—constrains the window for market creation. Any news regarding fixture cancellation, postponement, or venue changes would materially shift expectations, as would unexpected commercial interest from major sportsbooks seeking to hedge exposure through on-chain conditional tokens.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.