Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| NEC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Telstar 1963 O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Telstar 1963 O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Telstar 1963 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Telstar 1963 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| NEC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| NEC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Telstar 1963 (-1.5) | 0% |
| NEC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Telstar 1963 (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| NEC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| NEC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Telstar 1963 O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| NEC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| NEC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| NEC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Telstar 1963 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Telstar 1963 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively saying there is no remaining path to settlement within the window unless fresh information arrives before 14:30 UTC. On Polymarket, that price sits on USDC collateral and resolves through conditional tokens on Polygon, so traders are not backing the abstract fixture but the specific on-chain condition tied to this Eredivisie match and its related “more markets” settlement rules.
For context, the recent NEC-Telstar meetings have been tight rather than one-sided: the teams drew 1-1 on 2 May 2026 and 2-2 on 13 December 2025, while broader head-to-head data in the results shows a history with a high draw rate and relatively modest goal totals per game.[1][3][7][19] That matters for reading a market like this because low-probability pricing can still look brittle when the underlying contest has already produced several close scorelines, but the current 0% quote reflects the trading window and market structure rather than any fresh football edge.
A trader watching this market would focus on any last-minute fixture, kick-off, or settlement-definition updates from the league or Polymarket, because “more markets” contracts can turn on exact match status, timing, and whether the game is officially completed within the stated window. The match is listed by multiple football data sources as scheduled for 8 August, and Polymarket’s own team history page shows the recent NEC-Telstar results that shape expectations if the contract hinges on in-play outcomes or related sub-markets.[2][5][16]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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