Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Everton FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| Everton FC (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Everton FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Everton FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Everton FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Everton FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Everton FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Everton FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Preston North End FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Preston North End FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Preston North End FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Preston North End FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Preston North End FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Everton FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| Preston North End FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Preston North End FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket has this Preston North End FC v Everton FC more-markets contract at 0% YES today, so the current price is effectively saying the settlement condition has not been met before the 26 August 2026 19:00 UTC cut-off. On Polymarket, that means the position is priced through USDC on Polygon and settles via conditional tokens against the market’s specified outcome rules, not the football result in the abstract.
The closest read-through is the Carabao Cup second-round tie at Deepdale, which the price market would have treated as a binary event around whether the named extra markets were triggered by the fixture context. Preston and Everton were drawn together in the week commencing 24 August, and the game was scheduled for Wednesday 26 August with the third-round draw set for after full-time, which made timing and official confirmations the key dependency rather than broad team strength alone.[7][15] Comparable cup markets on Polymarket tend to move on line-up news, kick-off confirmation, and any late rescheduling, because the contract settles from defined event data rather than from sentiment.
A trader watching this kind of market would have focused on late team announcements, broadcast schedules, and whether the tie stayed on the published date and venue. Sky Sports listed the fixture for 8:00 pm on 26 August at Deepdale, while pre-match previews also flagged live coverage and the standard cup scheduling window, which are the sorts of external checks that usually matter when a market is sitting at or near zero.[1][8][13] Once the match was played, the result updates from major sports desks showed Everton winning 4-0, which would normally remove ambiguity if the market’s settlement rule was tied to the confirmed fixture outcome and its associated “more markets” condition.[4][5]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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