Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Atalanta BC (-1.5) | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atalanta BC (-2.5) | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atalanta BC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Hapoel Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atalanta BC will face MH Hapoel Tel Aviv in a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifying match on 20 August at 2:30 PM ET. The fixture forms part of the competition's playoff round, determining progression to the group stage. On Polymarket, this contract currently settles at 0% YES, reflecting either minimal liquidity, a technical listing issue, or genuine market indifference to whatever specific outcome the "More Markets" condition references. USDC settlement on Polygon means traders are pricing conditional tokens against a binary outcome tied to this fixture, though the exact resolution criteria remain opaque at present.
Historical precedent suggests Europa Conference League qualifying matches between established Italian sides and Israeli clubs favour the higher-ranked European team. Atalanta, a Serie A regular and Champions League participant, enters as clear favourites on traditional sportsbooks. Hapoel Tel Aviv qualified for this round after domestic success but faces a significant step up in competition. Previous editions of this tournament show Italian clubs advance in roughly 75% of such matchups, though upsets occur when travel fatigue or squad rotation create openings.
Traders should monitor team news through mid-August, particularly injury updates and whether either club rotates heavily ahead of domestic league fixtures. UEFA's official fixture schedule and any weather alerts for the venue matter less than squad availability. Atalanta's manager Gian Piero Gasperini typically fields near-full-strength sides in European competition, whilst Hapoel's preparation and recent form in Israeli football will signal their competitive readiness.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Atalanta BC vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv - More Markets on Polymarket Scam?
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →