1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this exact-score contract at **0% YES** right now, which on the board means the market is effectively pricing no listed scoreline as a live candidate and leaving traders with only the tokenised claim on Polygon, settled in USDC through conditional tokens. For a friendly, that is usually a sign of either very thin liquidity or a market that has not yet been meaningfully repriced against the teams’ actual finishing rates, rather than a strong view on the football itself.[14]

The most useful historical frame is that both clubs have been involved in open, high-scoring summer matches: Köln’s recent results include 2-2 with Hannover, 8-0 against Bergisch Gladbach and 5-1 at Bayern, while Real Sociedad have gone 2-1, 4-2, 2-1 and 1-1 in their latest listed fixtures.[1][2][6] Head-to-head history is sparse, with UEFA showing one Köln win, one Real Sociedad win and one draw across their past European meetings, so there is little direct data to anchor a specific exact score.[15] In practical market terms, that leaves “Any Other Score” and rotation-heavy outcomes more relevant than any single favoured line.

The main catalysts to watch are late squad announcements, whether either side treats the match as a full 90-minute friendly or adjusts the format, and any same-day travel or selection news that changes the expected attacking mix. Recent fixture feeds already show the usual summer volatility around friendlies, with cancelled matches appearing across the broader slate and both clubs’ schedules still clustered around pre-season play.[4][10][12] Because the contract resolves on the final score rather than the event narrative, traders on Polymarket will usually react fastest to confirmed line-ups, goalkeeper choices and any update that shifts the game from first-team rehearsal to a heavily rotated run-out.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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