Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SC Internacional O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SC Internacional 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Clube do Remo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 0.5 | 96% |
| Both Teams to Score | 89% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SC Internacional 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SC Internacional (-2.5) | 12% |
| SC Internacional (-1.5) | 1% |
| SC Internacional O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SC Internacional 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Clube do Remo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Clube do Remo (-1.5) | 0% |
| Clube do Remo (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Clube do Remo O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SC Internacional 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
SC Internacional vs Clube do Remo is priced on Polymarket at a very low 1% YES, which points to the contract being treated as a near-certain no for the listed “more markets” outcome on the August 17 match window. On the exchange, that means traders funding with USDC on Polygon are valuing the conditional tokens as if the required extra market condition is highly unlikely to resolve in time by the 23:00 UTC settlement cut-off.
For context, the fixture itself was scheduled as Internacional v Remo in Porto Alegre, with kick-off listed at 23:00 UTC on 17 August and coverage showing Internacional as the home side in Brazil Série A round 23[1][4][6]. Comparable league listings and previews also had Internacional priced as the stronger side, with a home win line around -185 to -211 and a modest total of 2.5 goals, which fits a market where the base match was expected to be fairly conventional rather than headline-driven[1][10][15]. A 1% reading on the Polymarket contract therefore sits well below the kind of implied probability that would usually accompany a routine top-flight Brazilian fixture.
The main things a trader would watch are changes to the official match status, line-up or referee announcements, and any schedule slips that could push events beyond the settlement window. ESPN’s live schedule showed the fixture as active on 17 August, while other listings kept the same Beira-Rio venue and UTC timing, so any late change to kick-off, postponement, or administrative confirmation would matter more here than team form alone[4][6][10]. If the market’s “more markets” trigger depends on an additional official market being posted, the practical catalyst is whether that dependent market appears and closes before 23:00 UTC; otherwise the contract remains aligned with the current 1% crowd price[1][4].
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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