Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 93% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 22.5 | 38% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Match O/U 23.5 | 23% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 2 Winner | 2% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | 1% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, swedish open: sebastian ofner vs thiago agustin tirante stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Ofner and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
This page reviews Swedish Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Thiago Agustin Tirante across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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