Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
Market context
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the tennis match between Emilio Nava and Ignacio Buse in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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