Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 36.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier | 73% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 25% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: alex molcan vs daniel altmaier. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Molcan and Daniel Altmaier in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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