Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 80% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Match O/U 36.5 | 59% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro | 57% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 2 Winner | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Match O/U 38.5 | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 1 Winner | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Game Spread +/-0.5 | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 3 Winner | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Match O/U 40.5 | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 41% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 21% |
Market context
The US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro prediction market currently prices this outcome at 80% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Jesper de Jong and Francesco Passaro in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jesper de …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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