United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Paraguay will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June at 9:00 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices an exact-score outcome at 10% YES, meaning the conditional token for any single scoreline trades at roughly 0.10 USDC per share on Polygon. This reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting football matches to a precise result—there are dozens of possible final scores within 90 minutes of regulation play, and the market fragments probability across them. The settlement mechanism excludes extra time and penalties, capturing only the regulation and stoppage-time result.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score predictions in World Cup group matches cluster around low probabilities. Since 2010, group-stage matches between nations of comparable strength have produced a median of 2.1 goals per side, with scorelines of 1–1, 2–1, and 1–0 accounting for roughly 35% of all outcomes. The US and Paraguay have met twice in competitive fixtures, drawing 3–3 in 1995 and 2–0 to the US in 2016. Paraguay qualified for 2026 via CONMEBOL qualification, finishing fifth; the US earned an automatic berth as co-host. Neither side is favoured to dominate possession or create clear-cut chances at scale.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates closer to June, particularly regarding Paraguay's forward depth and US defensive stability. Fixture congestion in the weeks before the tournament may affect player availability. The match's position within the group schedule—whether either side has already secured progression or elimination—could alter tactical approach and goal-scoring intensity. Polymarket's conditional token structure means traders can hedge across multiple scorelines or concentrate exposure on the most likely outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.