Tunisia vs. Netherlands

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Tunisia versus the Netherlands at **5% YES**, with settlement tied to the FIFA World Cup match scheduled for **25 June 2026 at 23:00 UTC**. On Polymarket, that means the contract is trading as a low-probability binary outcome funded in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with holders of the relevant conditional tokens paid out only if the market’s resolution criteria are met. [2]

That price sits well below the football baseline for a tournament match involving a side with stronger recent results. ESPN’s match page shows the Netherlands listed as the clear favourite, with moneyline odds of **-370** against Tunisia’s **+1000**, while the draw is priced at **+500**; the same page also notes the Netherlands beat Tunisia **4-0** in their World Cup meeting. [1] Tunisia’s World Cup record is thinner than the Dutch one, and its historical appearances have generally been as an underdog rather than a side consistently expected to progress deep into the tournament. [7]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: squad announcements, injury updates, and any changes to World Cup scheduling or venue context before the 25 June kick-off. FIFA’s match-centre page confirms the fixture, group, and start time, so the market will mostly reprice on team news rather than bracket mechanics. [2] In practical terms, a Polymarket user watching this contract is looking for any late change that shifts the probability of a Tunisia result far enough to move the on-chain price away from the low-single-digit range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.