Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 12 June at 3:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% YES, meaning Polymarket traders currently assign roughly 1-in-9 odds to this specific result materialising. Settlement depends on the final whistle at 90 minutes plus stoppage time; any deviation from the listed scoreline triggers "Any Other Score" resolution. The conditional token structure on Polygon means positions remain live until the match concludes, with USDC collateral locked across both YES and NO sides.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in major tournaments typically cluster probability around frequent outcomes. In World Cup group matches, draws and narrow victories dominate; scorelines like 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 account for roughly 40% of all results across recent tournaments. Bosnia-Herzegovina's ranking (currently around 61st) and Canada's (48th) point to a competitive fixture rather than a rout, which narrows the plausible outcome space. The 11% probability here likely reflects either a specific scoreline with moderate historical frequency or a less common result that traders view as unlikely given team strength differentials.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury reports through to match day, particularly for Canada's attacking depth and Bosnia-Herzegovina's defensive stability. Fixture congestion in the preceding group matches and any late withdrawals could shift team selection. Weather conditions at the venue and referee assignments occasionally influence goal-scoring patterns in group-stage play. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 12 June, six hours post-kick-off, allowing sufficient time for official confirmation of the final score.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.