Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 85% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists | 77% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 65% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 54% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals | 23% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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Trade Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props on Polymarket Scam?
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